A newsletter about the complexity of making good public policy in the midst of a global pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged global policy makers in ways unheard of in m...
Issue 35: COVID-19 strains the Pakistani federationLike most countries, Pakistan is struggling with the health and economic implications of the pandemic. But it is also raising new questions about the country's 2010 decentralization
Today’s briefing is by Abdullah Khan (AK), a Max Bell MPP student who holds a MSc in International Economics and Business from Utrecht University. He's riding out the pandemic in Montreal.
__ PAKISTAN HAS EXCEEDED 30 000 COVID-19 CASES WITH 667 DEATHS, and on May 7th, experienced its largest single day death toll spike. But Pakistan joins other locked down countries in bracing for a pandemic-driven economic recession, an unforeseen casualty of the pandemic has been the relationship between Pakistan’s central government and the country’s federating units. The varying pandemic responses from the federal government and provincial governments has widened existing governance gaps, resulting in political squabbles and frayed relations between different provinces.
Background
Pakistan is composed of four provinces: Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh. In 2018, Pakistan’s Movement for Justice (PTI) formed the government at the federal level and in the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In Balochistan, PTI is a part of a coalition government. Only the province of Sindh is led by the opposition Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).
Initial Response to COVID-19
On February 26th, initial cases of COVID-19 were confirmed to be people who had recently traveled to the neighbouring country of Iran. The bulk of Pakistan’s cases have since been reported in the southern port city of Karachi. The initial response led by the Federal Government closed down the western borders with Afghanistan and Iran. International flights were also restricted to three major airports: Lahore, Islamabad and Karachi. The March 23rd Pakistan Day parade, which is traditionally a symbol of military might and an occasion to display the country’s arsenal was also cancelled.
As a result of the landmark 2010 18th Constitutional amendment, health and policing is devolved from the centre to the provinces. Consequently, the second stage of COVID-19 responses was led by provincial governments. The southern province of Sindh was first to enact containment measures. On March 1st, provincial educational institutions were closed and Sindh’s Pakistani cricket league matches began to take place behind closed doors. Sindh officials have claimed that delays caused by the Federal Government hampered the provincial response and allowed the virus to spread rapidly.
A complete lockdown in Sindh began on March 22nd. Mass congregations were banned, and educational institutions, shopping malls and restaurants were closed. Military support was also enlisted to enforce containment measures in large urban areas.
The federal perspective
On March 17th, in his first address to the nation on the COVID-19 pandemic, Prime Minister Imran Khan voiced his objection to completely shutting down the country, citing the severe economic consequences that would result. Khan has raised legitimate concerns that a complete lockdown will disproportionately impact lower-income people, particularly amongst the labourers working for daily wages who constitute roughly 72 percent of the total workforce. The prime minister has repeatedly urged the provinces to reconsider the lockdown, even those provinces ruled by his own party, the PTI.
Economically, the federal government has responded to the crises by slashing fuel prices, offering cash assistance to lower income citizens, and subsidies for small businesses. Notably, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has used the crisis to reach out to the international community to obtain debt relief, as well as to plead for the lifting of international sanctions against Iran.
Federal officials have also taken the opportunity to criticize the autonomy awarded to the provinces through the 18th amendment. The federal Information Minister, Shibli Faraz, has cited the 18th amendment and devolution of powers as a source of federal powerlessness in fighting the coronavirus. At the time of writing, a gradual re-opening of the economy has started at a slower pace than the federal government would like because provinces are largely dictating the terms. Using the 18th amendment, provinces pushed back on the federal governments’ proposal for a swift removal of a lockdown and forced the centre to collaborate with the provinces and reach a consensus.
The provincial perspective
Sindh is the only province not run by the federal ruling power, the PTI, which explains why they are at loggerheads with the federal government over its response. Since the early days of the crisis, the Sindh government has clashed with Islamabad over the appropriate measures necessary to contain the virus. While the Sindh government imposed strict lockdown measures, the federal government sought a tradeoff between the economy and public health. Notably, Sindh is the only province where mass congregations were not allowed in mosques during the holy month of Ramadan.
The Sindh government has also accused the federal government of politicizing the issue and not providing them with the necessary support. For instance, Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah has complained that data on poor segments of society (data which is maintained by a federal authority) was not being shared with them, and that this has hampered economic relief activities. Furthermore, a proposal by the provincial government to subsidize electricity and natural gas bills was turned down by the Governor (a federal government appointee) on grounds that it fell under federal jurisdiction.
The pandemic has also exposed rifts between the provinces. In contrast with the PPP-ruled Sindh, the north-western province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which is a PTI stronghold and has been ruled by that party since 2013, has had the highest rate of COVID-19 fatalities in the country. The situation has led to a Twitter spat between the politicians of PPP and PTI over their respective handling of the crisis.
Back to the future?
Since the 2018 elections, a debate has been raging in Pakistan over provincial autonomy, which was secured after years of struggle in 2010. While the devolution has been largely beneficial to the country, the coronavirus pandemic has raised new questions about whether the country should revert to a more centralized system of governance.
The argument advanced by Islamabad is that the move to provincial autonomy has left the Federation with fewer resources and authority to deal with national-level issues. The current response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to further calls by the central government to reverse the 18th amendment.
However, the past history of Pakistan with such experiments has not generated positive results. The last time a highly centralized setup with congressional features was tried in the 1960’s, it led to the dismemberment of the country and separation of East Pakistan into Bangladesh. (AK)
___ Policy for Pandemics is produced and edited by Andrew Potter and co-edited by Charlotte Reboul and Paisley Sim (bios here) If you have any feedback or would like to contribute to this newsletter, please send an email to andrew2.potter@mcgill.ca |
