Today's Topics
3 charts before the weekend:
- The first-quarter GDP numbers are out, just how bad is the economy looking?
- The meat supply chain is coming under enormous pressure across the world, but which country eats the most?
- Captain Tom Moore turned 100 this week, we honour his fundraising efforts with a silly chart.
|
|
|
Until now, the weekly unemployment claims have been pretty much the most substantial piece of hard data that we've had on the economic impact of COVID-19. After another round of 4 million claims, that data is now pointing to the loss of more than 30 million jobs across the US.
To add to that, this week we got the preliminary estimate of US GDP for the first quarter of 2020, and it didn't make for pretty reading. The BEA estimates that real GDP slipped at a rate of 4.8% for the period January-to-March, with similar declines in European economies.
We've charted that decline relative to the last 50 years of US data, which reveals that it's the 4th worst-quarter since 1970, but not quite as bad as the depths of the GFC.
Not so bad then?
Unfortunately, it is. That Q1 number captures economic activity for 3 months, only the last of which (March) saw significant disruption from COVID-19. For most of January and February the economy was operating relatively "normally", albeit with some modest travel restrictions.
It seems very likely that the second quarter of this year could see real GDP fall at a rate of 15%, 20% or even 30%. If true, those numbers would make the fourth-quarter of 2008, when real GDP fell at a rate of ~8%, look "relatively benign".
The fact that the US stock market just booked its best month since 1987 suggests that the stimulus provided by the Federal Reserve and other central banks has detached the stock market from economic fundamentals in a way that has probably never happened before in history. Hold onto your hats.
|
|
Earlier this week President Trump signed an executive order to keep meat processing plants open during the coronavirus pandemic. His order came after Tyson Foods, one of the largest meat suppliers in the US, warned that the food supply chain was "breaking down".
For the US, meat makes up a significant part of a typical diet. In fact, the US consumes more meat per capita than any other country on the planet.
Who else eats a lot of meat?
This data from the OECD breaks down meat consumption by type. The US might be known for its steaks, but it's actually not the beef eating capital of the world. That would be Argentina, where a typical citizen chews through almost 40 kilograms of beef every year. Assuming an average sized steak is about 200 grams suggests that your typical Argentine is getting through about 200 steaks a year – more than one every other day.
This data reveals some other interesting cultural norms. In China for example pork makes up the majority of meat eaten, whereas it's pretty much not eaten at all in Israel for religious reasons. Aussies eat the most lamb and Brits seem to like a little bit of everything. |
|
Amidst the doom and gloom, one person who has lifted our spirits in the last few weeks has been Captain Tom Moore. His effort to do 100 laps of his garden before his 100th birthday saw him smash his way through his initial fundraising target of £1000, with his final tally sitting at almost £33m ($41m).
His incredible efforts made global news coverage, with google data revealing that he was, briefly, searched for more than British celebrities like Adele, Ed Sheeran, David Beckham – and even Queen Elizabeth. |
|
| PS: We know this chart is silly, but Tom Moore's fundraising was so epic we had to do something on it. |
|
Data Snacks
1) Microsoft teams has hit 75 million users, up 70% in the last 6 weeks.
2) A 13.5kg piece of moon rock has gone on sale for $2.5m.
3) Elon Musk has railed against the lockdowns on twitter to his 33m followers. His previous prediction that the US would have "close to zero new cases" by the end of April has not aged well.
4) Bored at home? Get the Charty Party game with a 15% discount using the code CHARTR.**
5) Jeff Bezos has seen his wealth hit almost $140bn after Amazon shares have risen ~30% in value in the year-to-date.
**This is a sponsored snack.
|
|
|
|
|
